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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
MARKET NEWS  -  FTSE 100  -  DOW JONES  -  GBP/USD  -  EUR/USD  -  USD/JPY  -  GOLD  -  CRUDE OIL
MARKET NEWS
 

US indices closed slightly up Monday helped by gains in the banks, semiconductors and consumer durables & apparel sectors. The S&P 500 (1280.7) remains above its 20d moving average (1250.9) and its 50d moving average (1241.6).

European markets are expected to start on a flat to higher note.

WALL STREET
63% of S&P500 constituents traded higher yesterday.
77% trade above their 20D MA vs 79% Friday (above the 20D moving average).
52% trade above their 200D MA vs 50% Friday (above the 20D moving average).

The VIX index added 0.44pt to 21.07.

The 10yr yield was unchanged to 1.96% (above its 20D MA). The 2yr-10yr spread fell 1.2bp to -171bps (below its 20D MA).

EUROPE
The Euro STOXX 50 lost 0.53% to 2286.45. Stocks from the bank, financial services and insurance sectors lost ground. Whereas stocks from the food & beverage, personal & household goods and travel & leisure sectors rose.

65% of STOXX 600 stocks traded lower yesterday.
71% trade above their 20D MA vs 77% Friday (above the 20D moving average).
33% trade above their 200D MA vs 34% Friday (above the 20D moving average).

The Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility index eased 0.38pt to 30.18.

The 10yr Bund yield fell 1bp to 1.85% (below its 20D MA). The 2yr-10yr spread fell 1bp to -170bps (above its 20D MA).

Outside the euro zone, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.66% to 5612.26. Health Care, banks and telecom shares fell most in London on Monday. Glaxosmithkline dropped 4.14% to 1435p and HSBC 1.36% to 491.4p.

In Switzerland, the SMI lost 0.44% to 5987.54. Novartis lost 1.19% to SF54.05 and UBS 3.52% to SF10.7.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
US Dollar slid against most of its major counterparts on Monday. On the US economic data front, consumer credit increased by $20.374B ($7.000B expected) in November, the largest increased since November 2001.

COMMODITIES
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (FEB 12) was about flat to $101.39. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $98.81) and above its 50D MA (@ $97.65).

Gold was down $6.8 to $1611.2. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1596) and below its 50D MA (@ $1679).

Copper Future (MAR 12) on Comex was about flat to 341.5c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 341.51c) and below its 50D MA (@ 346.7c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1225 tons to 366900 tons.



 
Economic events (CE time)

UK : Dec RICS House Price Balance, exp.: -19%
FR 08:30: Dec Bank of France Bus. Sentiment, exp.: 95
FR 08:45: Nov Manufacturing Production MoM, exp.: -0.4%
FR 08:45: Nov Industrial Production MoM, exp.: -0.2%
US 13:30: Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism, exp.: 94
US 16:00: Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
US 16:00: Nov JOLTs Job Openings
US 16:00: Nov Wholesale Inventories, exp.: 0.5%




Indices Last 1D % YTD
FTSE 100 5,612 -37.42 0.72
FTSE 250 10,251 5.27 1.47
FTSE techMARK Focus 2,089 7.52 1.20
Dow Jones 12,393 32.77 1.43
Nasdaq 100 2,351 -5.52 3.20
S&P 500 1,281 2.89 1.84
Euro STOXX 50 2,286 -12.20 -1.30
Dax 6,017 -40.69 2.02
Cac 40 3,128 -9.67 -1.02
SMI 5,988 -26.29 0.86
Nikkei 225 8,418 27.98 -0.44
Hang Seng 18,970 104.03 2.90
S&P/ASX 200 4,153 47.50 2.37

 
FTSE 100 (Mar 12) intraday : the upside prevails.

Pivot: 5570
Our Preference: LONG positions above 5570 with 5645 & 5675 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 5570 will call for a slide towards 5500 & 5460.
Comment: prices bounced off the rising trend line currently around 5570.





Dow Jones (Mar 12) intraday: watch 12490

Pivot: 12270
Our Preference: LONG positions above 12270 with 12425 & 12490 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 12270 will open the way to 12233 & 12133.
Comment:the RSI advocates for further upside.





GBP/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1.5415.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1.5415 with 1.5515 & 1.5535 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.5415 will call for a slide towards 1.539 & 1.5365.
Comment: the pair remains on the upside and is approaching its next resistance.





EUR/USD intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 1.2695.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1.2695 with 1.2815 & 1.2855 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.2695 will open the way to 1.265 & 1.262.
Comment: the pair has broken above its bearish channel upper boundary and remains on the upside.





USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 77.05.
Our Preference: SHORT positions below 77.05 with 76.7 & 76.55 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 77.05 will open the way to 77.25 & 77.45.
Comment: the pair is under pressure and is approaching its next support.





GOLD (Spot) intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 1604.00
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1604 with 1625 & 1640 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1604 will open the way to 1594 & 1580.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.






Crude Oil (Feb 12) intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 100.85
Our Preference: LONG positions above 100.85 with targets @ 102.7 & 103.65.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 100.85 will open the way to 99.85 & 98.75.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Trend: ST Bullish; MT Ltd upside





 
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