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The proposed products have been selected taking into account market conditions at a given moment. Investors acknowledge and agree that by their very nature, any investment in financial instruments is of a random nature and, therefore, any such investment constitutes a risky investment that is the sole responsibility of the investor.
The financial instruments covered by Trading Central research are high-risk products that can fluctuate significantly and present a risk of capital loss.
These products are intended for experienced investors with specific knowledge, aware that the risk of loss can be up to the total amount invested or even exceed the initial investment. Before making any investment decision, investors should take note of the information in the “Risk Factor” section of the relevant product prospectus and contact their financial adviser to verify the suitability of the investment.
It is specified that the past performance of a financial product does not prejudge in any way its future performance.
It follows from the foregoing that Trading Central’s liability can not be held directly or indirectly, particularly in the event of a financial loss, regardless of its amount.
Trading Central’s analyses reflect the opinions of its analysts at a given point in time. These analyses are only intended to assist the investor. The decision to invest or not always ultimately falls into the investor.
Investors are clearly advised that at no time does Trading Central decide on their personal wealth and financial situation, or on the level of risk they would be willing to bear.
Trading Central does not exercise, in this context, a Financial Advisory service. All information is of a “General” nature and can not, under any circumstances, represent any personalized information or advice or any solicitation or inducement to the public to buy or sell financial instruments.
Any decision concerning a possible purchase or sale of financial instruments is the sole responsibility of the investors, who recognize and accept it before any order is placed.
Consequently, Trading Central recommends that investors make an investment decision only after consulting a recognized financial professional who has a perfect understanding of their financial and property situation.
Technical analysis is at the heart of Trading Central’s expertise. Our methodology is proven. Our chartist and quantitative approach allows us to intervene on different investment horizons.
Trading Central technical analysis gives a view that is deliberately anticipatory, and not historical, with the objective of answering the following questions:
All our charts have an arrow that illustrates either bullish or bearish anticipation. The amplitude of the anticipated movement depends on the investment horizon.
Technical analysis, assessment and anticipation tool
Our team of analysts uses technical and chartist analysis to draw an opinion and make decisions. The preferred chartist elements are:
The Top Down approach: trading in the direction of the trend
An efficient method of stock picking is to adopt a top-down trend tracking approach. The analysis focuses first on the general trend of the market, and secondly on the sectors that make it up. Then, one or more stocks of the sector having the attention are selected.
The choice of one sector over another within the same market can be done by analyzing the ratio of the sector to the market. The sectors likely to “outperform”, that is to say, to do better than the market, are favoured.
How to select a stock?
As for the analysis of the most efficient sectors compared to the market, for the choice of stocks, the ratio of stock price to the sector is used. The idea is to position oneself to buy or sell on a stock in the direction of the market, and its sector, to maximize its chances of winning.
When analysts determine that the market is bearish, they look for sectors that underperform the market (that is, perform less well than the market) and select a stock in the sector that underperform the sector. Conversely, if they are in a rising market, they look at sectors that outperform (whose performance is better than the market) to choose the stock to buy by measuring the strength of the sector.
The Sector / Index Report
To measure the strength of a sector, the sector / index ratio is analyzed graphically. When this ratio increases, it means that the sector outperforms the index. If it falls, the sector underperforms the index.
Choose a stock and take a position
When the analysts have determined the general trend of the indices and the sector that will optimize this directional (which will most outperform when looking for long positions, underperform when looking for short positions), the last step is to find in the selected sectors, the best asset or assets to buy or sell. Thus, they choose a stock that is from a technical point of view likely to be bullish, if they are in a bull market and vice versa, a downside if they are in a bear market.
The ratio “stock price / sector”
The stock price / sector ratio is a good tool to know the performance of a company on the market. On a chart, if the curve of the company is above that of the sector, it is because the company has outperformed the sector.
Controlling market risks: money management, or how to survive on the stock market in the long-term
Before any recommendation, analysts evaluate the potential for gain and the potential for loss. They analyze the reward / risk ratio. This ratio corresponds to the ratio of the expectation of gain to the maximum loss accepted on a position.
The higher the ratio, the more the trading opportunity will offer a significant gain compared to the risk taken: IF the reward / risk ratio is less than 1: the anticipated gain is less than the allowed loss. In this case, opening a trading position is not interesting.
Analysts are looking for entry points (buying or selling) that meet the condition of a risk return ratio greater than or equal to 3.
The reward / risk ratio allows the investor to make smart bets and stand out. If at each investment, the potential gain is greater than three times the assumed loss, even if you have 50% success rate, the capital will not decrease if the initial investment plan is respected.
Objective: to do better than the market with derivatives
When analysts have chosen an asset (a stock for example) and they anticipate that it will underperform its sector and the index, in a downward market, they are looking for a product (for example an option) that could replicate this decline with leverage.
Leverage provides superior returns and the best results. These products are called “derivatives”. Be careful, however, the risks taken are also more important and it is, therefore, necessary to control them.
Technical Analysis: The technical analysis starts with a fairly simple financial principle: at a time T, the price of an asset accurately reflects all the information available on the asset, all of its history. This is because time is considered continuous; any change in the price leads to the determination of a new level which itself will be the base of reference for new variations. Therefore, it is possible to rely on the evolution of prices to try to determine the most likely future developments. A more complete definition is available here.
Investment Horizons: more information on this link
Market trend: Trading Central identifies 3 possible market directions: bullish anticipation, bearish anticipation, neutral anticipation. See below
Bullish or bearish expectation: terms synonymous with bullish or bearish trend.
Targets: When the identified trend is bullish, the targets are the first two resistances. In the case where the trend is bearish, the targets are the first two supports.
Supports and resistances: On the charts, the levels in green are resistances, those in red are supports. Only one is in blue, this is the key level of the analysis: the pivot point. There are 3 main categories of supports and resistances:
Investment recommendations may differ depending on their time horizon.
Trading Central methodology: Investment Horizon explained
This document aims to clarify the concept of investment horizon as used by Trading Central to facilitate the use of our research.
Technical analysis focuses on forecasting trends and understanding market psychology. It assumes that the market takes everything into account, the courses follow trends and history repeats itself.
Our method of technical analysis allows to intervene on different horizons of investment: we strive to anticipate not only the nature of a movement (a rise or a fall of course), but also when this movement will be fulfilled (eg in the day, within a week or a month).
To avoid any ambiguity, the investment horizons proposed by Trading Central depend on the time scale of the chart used (15 minutes, 30 minutes, daily or weekly).
We estimate that our expectations at a given moment “T” and on a given time scale are the most consistent up to about 20 periods. Beyond this, for a longer forecast, we need to complete our analysis with a chart on a larger time scale. Thus, for a daily chart we think that the most appropriate anticipation is up to about 20 days (20 bars). For a longer horizon we will use a weekly chart.
Analyzes on 15-minute graphs, also known as High Frequency, are based on a calculation of hourly volatility allowing forecasts to be made at a specific investment horizon of 1 hour.
The historical data used on the Trading Central charts come from external sources that are believed to be reliable.
The information and data used to write the market comments come from:
In any case, unless the information comes from a company publication, Trading Central cites the source.
Trading Central expressly excludes all liability of any kind as to the accuracy, completeness or quality of the information, products and services provided by third parties involved in carrying out its analysis.
Trading Central uses long tested and constantly monitored analysis systems, based on reliable data. However Trading Central can not be held responsible in case of failure of these data, interruption or suspension of these services.
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The list of all the recommendations and analysis on a financial instrument or an issuer, produced by Trading Central in the last 12 months, can be consulted directly, easily and for free by sending a letter to:
11 bis rue Scribe
The quarterly publication of the share of bullish, bearish, neutral recommendations and analysis over the past 12 months is available by writing to:
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