U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield at Critical Point


Kim Ming Lam


March 24, 2022



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U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield at Critical Point

Source: Bloomberg

On a Monthly Chart, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield has again shot across the 2 Standard Deviation mark (Upper Bollinger band).

It is also trying to break above a Bearish Channel that has been in place for over 30 years.

Are we going to see Yield continue an uptrend, or retreat?

In case we are going to see secular inflation and rising interest rates, Yield should keep advancing.

However, if economic growth loses steam, Yield could find it hard to bounce further.

One more food for thought. The widely-followed Yield Curve (10-Year Yield minus 2-Year Yield) is currently on a steep downtrend (at around 21 basis points), raising fresh worries about the economy’s prospects.

Source: Bloomberg

An inversion of this Yield Curve, i.e. the Curve sinking to zero and negative territory, is widely regarded as a signal of a coming recession.

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Kim Ming Lam

Head of APAC Research