The Fed To Hike...or Not To Hike?


Kim Ming Lam


July 21, 2023



Min Read

TC Economic Insight - The Week Ahead (July 24-28)

Using Trading Central's "Economic Insight" investors can check out up-coming major economic data.

We are looking into the trading week of July 3-7 :

We can select economic data of "High", "Medium" or "Low" importance, or any combination of such filters:

We can select which economies to focus on:

No doubt investors and traders are watching closely whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged or hike rates by 25 basis points on the coming Wednesday (July 26).

The Fed maintained interest rates steady at 5.00%-5.25% in June amid its most aggressive rate-hike cycle in decades.

According to Trading Central's "Economic Insight", the Fed will increase its key interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% on Wednesday.

In the past 8 Fed’s interest-rate decisions, EUR/USD rose in 75% of times (6 out of 8 interest-rate decisions) within one hour from the report’s release, marking a trading range of 83.97 pips on average.

Other key economic data include:

Monday (July 24)

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow to 40.0 in July.

U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected to rise to 0.20 in June.

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI may dip to 46.0 in July.

Tuesday (July 25)

Germany Ifo Business Climate Index is expected at 86.6 in July.

U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to improve to -2 in July. 

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index may edge up to 111.0 in July.

Wednesday (July 26)

Australia Inflation Rate is expected to slow to 6.3% on year in 2Q.

U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate-hike to 5.50%.

U.S. New Home Sales may decline 4.0% on month in June.

Thursday (July 27)

The European Central Bank is expected to hike its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Index may improve to -24 in August.0

U.S. 2Q GDP is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.9% on quarter.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders are expected to grow 0.8% on month in June.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims to be reported (vs 9-week low of 228,000 in previous week).

Friday (July 28)

Japan’s Central Bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at -0.100%.

Germany Inflation Rate is expected to slow to 6.1% on year in July.

France Inflation Rate is expected to tick down to 4.3% on year in July.

France 2Q GDP may grow 0.1% on quarter.

U.S. Core PCE Price Growth may slow further to 4.3% in June.

Canada GDP may grow at 0.4% on month in May.

Happy Trading!

Source: Trading Central Economic Insight

Kim Ming Lam

Head of APAC Research
Ming graduated from Hong Kong University with a Bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering. He has been working in the financial services sector for over 10 years. He is currently tasked with providing clients with technical analysis views on forex and Asian stock indexes.
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