TC Economic Insight - The Week Ahead (Feb 5 - 9)


George Lam


February 4, 2024



Min Read

TC Economic Insight - The Week Ahead (Feb 5 - 9)

Using Trading Central's "Economic Insight" investors can check out up-coming major economic data.

We are looking into the trading week of February 5 - 9:

We can select economic data of "High", "Medium" or "Low" importance, or any combination of such filters:

We can select which economies to focus on:

China’s government will report January inflation data on Thursday (February 8). According to Trading Central's "Economic Insight", the country should continue to see deflation as consumer prices may fall 0.4% on year.

Deflation, with prices of goods and services declining, is usually translated into an economic slowdown. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said China’s economic growth could ease to 4.6% in 2024 (5.2% in 2023), citing a real estate slump and weaker demand for its exports.

In case of persistent deflation and a further economic slowdown, we could expect the government to launch extra fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate the economy.

In the past 12 China Inflation Reports, USD/CNH rose in 50% of times (6 out of 12 events) within one hour from the report’s release, marking a trading range of 102.11 pips on average.

Forecasts of Key Economic Data:

Monday (February 5)

AU Trade Surplus (DEC) expected at A$7.9 billion

CN Caixin Services PMI (JAN) to be unchanged at 52.9

US ISM Services PMI (JAN) expected to rise to 51.7

DE Balance of Trade (DEC) expected at €17B

EA PPI MoM (DEC) expected to be down to −0.5% MoM

Tuesday (February 6)

AU RBA Benchmark Rate unchanged at 4.35%

JP Household Spending (DEC) -2.5% YoY

DE Factory Orders (DEC) -0.1% MoM

EA Retail Sales (DEC) -1.0% MoM

CA Building Permits (DEC) +2.5% MoM

CA Ivey PMI s.a (JAN) may dip to 55.8

Wednesday (February 7)

New Zealand Unemployment Rate (4Q) to edge up to 4.0%

DE Industrial Production (DEC) -0.3% MoM

GB Halifax House Price Index (JAN) +0.2% MoM

CA Trade Surplus (DEC) may widen to C$1.80 billion

US Trade Deficit (DEC) expected at $63.0 billion

Thursday (February 8) 

CN Inflation Rate (JAN) expected at -0.4% YoY

CN PPI (JAN) to narrow to -2.1% on year

GB RICS House Price Balance (JAN) may edge up to −29%

US Initial Jobless may tick up to 227,000

Friday (February 9)

CN Stock Market closed Feb 9 - 16 for the Spring Festival

CA Full-Time Employment Change (JAN) expected at +30,000

CA Unemployment Rate (JAN) may stay at 5.8%

Happy Trading!

Source: Trading Central Economic Insight

George Lam

Technical Analyst
George Lam is a technical analyst attached to Trading Central's Hong Kong Office. George graduated from the University of Manchester with a bachelor's degree in economics, and has been engaged in the financial analysis field in Hong Kong for about 10 years.
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